Research says data ownership and distribution will decide winners in the AI advertising market as models become commoditized.
A new Advertising Intelligence Framework explains how companies should evaluate future advertising partners in an AI-driven market. The framework, referenced in its “This Year Next Year” forecast, describes how advertising competition is shifting away from just AI models toward broader business capabilities.
The research identifies five areas that will decide which companies become the main sources of intelligence for businesses and consumers by 2030. These are Data Assets, AI and technology strength, Distribution reach, Commerce systems, and Content and media integration.
In simple terms, success will depend not only on how smart an AI is, but also on how much data it has, how many users it can reach, and how easily it can connect advertising to real purchases.
Data Assets refer to how much useful information a company holds about people and businesses. AI and technology cover how models and algorithms are built and run. Distribution measures audience reach and trust across devices and platforms. Commerce looks at payment systems and advertiser relationships. Content evaluates how ads are combined with media and experiences.
According to the analysis, distribution, meaning audience reach, will be the strongest competitive advantage and hardest to copy. At the same time, core AI models are becoming easier to access, meaning intelligence alone will not guarantee leadership.
The framework groups major technology companies into four categories. “Ecosystem Builders” include Alphabet and Amazon because they combine massive reach with multiple revenue streams. “Specialists” include Alibaba, Meta, Microsoft, Tencent and xAI, which are strong in specific areas but not across the full ecosystem.
The “Challengers” group includes Apple, ByteDance and OpenAI. These companies are building broader capabilities but do not yet match the scale of ecosystem leaders. Finally, “Hardware Heavyweights” include Samsung and Xiaomi due to their large device networks and sensors.
The research also lists key questions advertisers must consider in the AI era. Companies must decide whether they truly own their customer data, whether partners can prove advertising impact without direct purchases, and whether targeting methods will survive future privacy regulations.
Businesses also need backup plans if major platforms suddenly lose reach and must consider whether AI agents themselves will recommend their products.
Overall, the study concludes the advertising market is still evolving. The eventual leaders will be determined not just by AI innovation, but by partnerships, acquisitions, and how well companies build full ecosystems around data, distribution, and commerce.
